From the moment in late July when Rachel Reeves unveiled her “£22 billion black hole” and announced means-testing for the winter fuel payment, it was clear her Budget premiere would be a challenging one for both the government and the governed.

As Budget Day neared, talk of the black hole was replaced by a steady flow of rumours about tax increases and also, to a lesser extent spending cuts,
totalling as much as £40 billion. In addition, there were suggestions that
government borrowing – already overshooting the March 2024 Budget
projections by around £7 billion – would rise by £20 billion to fund NHS and infrastructure projects.

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